NAR's GDP Forecast update

By Arun Barman, Research Economist

Daily Forecast Update

• NAR's monthly official forecast as of January 5th
• GDP 2010 Q1: +2.2% (Was 2.7% just last week)
• GDP 2010 Q2: +2.1% (Was 2.4% just last week)
• GDP 2010 Q3: +2.5% (new forecast added)
• Unemployment rate by the mid-2010: 10.0% (Was 10.1% just last week)
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2010 2009: 5.6% (Remained the same from the previous post)

 

OMB's GDP estimates for 2010 is 3.0%, a slightly more aggressive estimate.  I'll readdress this next quarter and see who is the winner.  I'll get a competition going and keep tabs on the public sector or the private sector to see who is better at predicting future.