Austin's Job Growth Forecast

Angelous Economics forecasted job growth for the next two years.  By 2010, 25% of local industries are projected to experience positive growth, and by 2011, all sectors are projected to increase.  The following charts show overall job growth and job growth by industry for the past five years including predictions for the next two years.

This table below shows the year-over-year % change in jobs.  Education and Other Services seems to be the biggest industry growers over the past year compared to their five-year averages.  Construction and Manufacturing remain hit the hardest.  Angelous’ forecast shows these two sectors making positive gains in the next few years as home and retail sales improve.  While many experts have given the government credit for aiding in job growth in the area, the past two years additions were similar to the five-year average.  However, the completion of the new federal courthouse and the recent purchase of 700 Lavaca by Travis County will likely require new heads (jobs) to fill the increasing demand for civil services.  Other industries with positive outlooks are environmental services, medical services, biotechnology, restaurants, computer software & services and pharmaceuticals manufacturing per Grubb & Ellis.  They also emphasize healthcare relating to geriatrics and our aging baby-boomer society (77 million total, and that’s only counting the United States).  Not surprising as medical office has been one of the few local commercial submarkets to experience positive gains in rent rates, occupancy, and sale prices.  However, a portion of those gains is due to increase in overall costs in the industry.  

 

If you look at Angelous’ predications, he shows nearly 100,000 in population growth based on U.S. Census predictions but only 26,600 in jobs.  As of 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a national dependency ratio of 96.4 (total dependents divided by total workers multiplied by 100).  Based on the national dependency ratio, it can be inferred that the projected number of jobs will support roughly 27,600 dependents or a total of about  55,000 people.  If Angelous’ population and job forecasts are correct, then the unemployment rate must increase to nearly 10% based on the 22,000+ job seekers added to the market in the next two years (allocated 22,000 within the workforce and 23,000 as dependents).  Pretty shocking conclusions to infer from Angelous’ predictions, but my feeling is that people will not move to Austin unless they have a job.